Economic Survey 2025-26 Highlights:
29, January 2026. By -Kaushik
The Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, recently tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26 in Parliament. Often seen as the “prelude to the Budget,” this year’s survey paints a picture of an economy that is not just resilient but is entering what experts call a “Goldilocks” phase—characterized by high growth and historically low inflation.
1. GDP Growth: The World’s Bright Spot
India continues to hold its title as the fastest-growing major economy. The Survey projects a real GDP growth of 7.4% for FY26, surpassing most global estimates. Looking ahead to FY27, the growth is expected to remain robust in the range of 6.8% to 7.2%.
This momentum is fueled by:
Strong Domestic Demand: Private consumption accounts for 61.5% of the GDP.
Public Capex: Massive government spending on infrastructure continues to be the economy’s backbone.
Revived Private Investment: Corporate India is finally opening its purse strings, with investment rates holding steady at 30% of GDP.
2. Inflation at a Historic Low
In a significant win for the common man, the Survey highlights that headline CPI inflation averaged just 1.7% during the April–December 2025 period. This is the lowest since the current CPI series began. Moderation in food and fuel prices has been the primary driver, providing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with much-needed room to support growth.
3. The “Manufacturing vs. Services” Debate
The 2026 Survey delivers a blunt strategic message: Services made India rich, but manufacturing will make it resilient. * Manufacturing: GVA growth hit 9.13% in Q2 FY26, signaling a structural recovery.
Services: Remains the dominant driver with a growth projection of 9.1% for the full fiscal year.
Strategic Shift: The government is pushing for “Strategic Resilience” through the India Semiconductor Mission and new FTAs, like the one recently concluded with the European Union.
4. Agriculture: Beyond Foodgrains
Agriculture has shown a “decadal high” growth rate of 4.45% over the last ten years. However, the Survey notes a shift in the narrative. While foodgrain production hit a record 357.7 million tonnes, the real stars are Horticulture, Livestock, and Fisheries. Horticulture production (36.2 crore tonnes) has now officially surpassed foodgrain output, marking a transition toward high-value farming.
5. Fiscal Discipline & The “Freebie” Warning
The government has remained committed to its fiscal glide path, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.4% for FY26, down from 4.8% the previous year.
Interestingly, the Survey raises a red flag regarding “Fiscal Populism.” It warns that unconditional cash transfers at the state level could “crowd out” essential capital expenditure. The message is clear: for India to reach its Viksit Bharat 2047 goal, money must be spent on building assets, not just short-term subsidies.
6. Banking & External Health
The banking sector is at “multi-decade health highs.”
GNPAs: Fell to a record low of 2.2% as of September 2025.
Forex Reserves: Stood at $701.4 billion, enough to cover 11 months of imports.
Digital Prowess: Over 55 crore Jan Dhan accounts are now active, driving financial inclusion.
Final Thoughts
The Economic Survey 2026 suggests that India has successfully navigated global “shocks” (like trade tariffs and geopolitical shifts) by leaning on its domestic strength. With the base year for GDP being revised to 2022-23, the statistical architecture is also getting a modern makeover.
Disclaimer :
This blog does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice. All content is for educational and informational purposes only. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author will not be responsible for any financial losses incurred
